* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/20/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 73 75 76 74 68 59 49 42 36 31 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 73 75 76 74 68 59 49 42 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 69 70 72 71 67 61 53 45 38 31 SHEAR (KTS) 4 10 10 12 12 18 15 18 20 21 19 22 17 SHEAR DIR 223 192 186 196 209 217 227 222 237 252 261 269 272 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.1 24.8 24.0 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 155 153 149 144 137 124 110 102 97 94 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 7 6 3 2 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 47 40 39 37 34 27 23 19 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 45 40 37 57 52 56 37 33 32 25 12 200 MB DIV 5 16 18 -11 1 14 25 -4 11 8 -12 6 6 LAND (KM) 226 227 228 234 254 275 222 220 311 392 513 685 784 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.8 108.1 109.0 109.9 111.1 112.7 114.5 116.3 118.4 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 4. -3. -12. -19. -26. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 14. 8. -1. -10. -18. -24. -29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/20/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY