* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/21/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 69 68 64 59 49 39 32 23 18 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 69 68 64 59 49 39 32 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 65 65 66 64 60 54 46 38 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 11 13 13 16 16 17 20 18 22 26 28 SHEAR DIR 194 186 193 202 185 214 209 210 234 263 256 250 227 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.8 25.3 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 152 150 142 131 116 104 99 97 94 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 6 6 2 4 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 49 45 38 36 33 33 30 28 27 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 35 32 41 39 61 51 44 36 19 8 11 200 MB DIV 15 19 -2 2 16 31 18 2 -20 -6 13 -6 19 LAND (KM) 227 223 222 235 254 285 224 279 401 496 650 792 910 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.4 107.6 107.9 108.1 109.0 110.3 112.0 113.9 115.9 117.9 119.9 121.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -13. -22. -29. -39. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 4. -1. -11. -21. -28. -37. -42. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED