* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/21/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 60 59 57 52 46 37 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 60 59 57 52 46 37 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 61 61 60 57 52 46 39 32 27 21 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 14 15 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 22 38 SHEAR DIR 191 206 208 197 208 221 221 229 244 253 247 229 225 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.3 26.1 25.1 24.2 23.6 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 151 147 136 123 113 105 99 96 92 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 53 48 44 41 36 36 34 31 34 33 33 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 31 28 41 44 25 44 27 19 2 1 -10 2 200 MB DIV 15 4 4 17 12 25 -1 6 -11 -10 -2 15 8 LAND (KM) 211 211 219 248 281 247 240 346 424 534 708 845 989 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.5 107.7 108.1 108.4 109.6 111.3 112.9 114.4 116.3 118.6 120.8 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -21. -30. -39. -47. -52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -23. -31. -39. -47. -52. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY