* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/21/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 59 59 57 51 43 32 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 59 59 57 51 43 32 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 61 61 61 60 56 50 43 36 29 24 18 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 12 17 13 18 17 20 18 18 19 27 33 SHEAR DIR 217 215 181 198 212 206 212 229 254 253 249 218 244 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.0 25.7 24.4 23.6 23.0 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 144 133 119 106 98 92 90 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 7 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 47 46 43 42 41 36 36 32 28 24 29 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 47 48 32 43 26 22 17 9 6 1 7 200 MB DIV -2 6 24 26 30 11 0 -24 -12 -18 -7 28 15 LAND (KM) 209 219 236 273 313 244 257 358 400 501 621 751 896 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.7 107.9 108.3 108.7 110.1 111.7 113.3 114.9 116.6 118.5 120.6 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -6. -15. -25. -33. -43. -50. -56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -17. -28. -35. -44. -51. -57. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY