* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/21/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 44 44 41 37 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 44 44 41 37 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 46 45 44 43 40 36 31 26 20 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 11 14 15 22 19 22 24 27 30 40 36 SHEAR DIR 224 187 193 220 214 225 226 245 266 257 247 236 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.1 24.8 23.9 23.2 22.5 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 148 139 124 110 101 94 87 82 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 47 45 41 38 37 32 26 23 23 22 19 26 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 33 49 51 36 36 51 49 38 22 4 -9 -2 21 200 MB DIV 21 19 12 21 30 -14 -5 -31 -9 -10 16 16 31 LAND (KM) 218 241 269 326 306 255 353 431 499 605 669 799 960 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.2 108.8 109.4 111.0 112.9 114.7 116.3 118.0 120.0 122.0 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -10. -18. -26. -34. -44. -51. -57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -13. -22. -30. -36. -44. -52. -57. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/21/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY