* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/22/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 40 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 42 41 37 33 28 22 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 15 17 22 19 22 20 25 31 38 42 56 SHEAR DIR 204 204 214 203 202 214 236 259 250 234 219 224 221 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.0 25.6 24.4 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 148 144 134 119 107 97 91 86 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 44 39 40 39 35 33 28 27 22 20 22 29 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 36 34 55 36 33 23 -2 0 9 42 53 200 MB DIV 29 11 26 36 21 -11 -20 -19 16 3 41 29 1 LAND (KM) 241 278 320 328 300 334 457 519 625 696 769 878 1003 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.3 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.3 108.7 109.4 110.1 111.8 113.9 115.9 117.8 119.6 121.2 123.0 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -27. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -18. -27. -37. -46. -54. -59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -13. -22. -30. -39. -47. -54. -59. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY