* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/22/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 36 35 32 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 15 17 19 17 19 23 25 30 39 41 56 SHEAR DIR 207 211 205 196 211 235 248 249 237 224 217 220 223 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.6 25.3 24.4 23.7 23.2 22.7 22.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 145 141 130 116 107 99 94 88 83 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -52.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 42 38 38 34 34 33 32 24 23 24 32 41 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 32 30 47 33 32 27 -5 -8 -16 -8 26 42 200 MB DIV 30 25 39 33 3 -7 -10 4 14 20 27 29 -4 LAND (KM) 256 307 356 339 341 426 561 640 728 792 878 957 1021 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.9 110.7 112.7 115.0 117.0 118.7 120.4 122.2 123.6 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 8 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -25. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -25. -34. -42. -47. -52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -20. -28. -35. -42. -47. -52. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY