* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/22/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 41 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 41 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 37 35 32 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 17 12 18 21 23 27 37 41 51 64 SHEAR DIR 213 208 193 217 225 236 245 235 227 223 234 221 216 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.0 25.5 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.8 22.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 141 134 119 107 101 96 92 88 82 76 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 37 37 35 33 31 34 34 28 28 28 35 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 46 33 24 37 21 -5 -16 -20 -9 16 11 200 MB DIV 32 36 16 2 -5 -9 6 31 0 32 8 40 0 LAND (KM) 312 359 345 355 396 547 718 805 841 834 797 763 716 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.8 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.9 111.9 114.2 117.1 118.7 119.6 120.4 120.7 121.2 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 10 10 12 11 7 5 5 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -29. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -28. -37. -45. -51. -58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -17. -26. -35. -44. -49. -57. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY