* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/22/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 30 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 16 13 15 20 27 30 34 42 40 54 49 SHEAR DIR 203 206 222 228 235 236 235 227 227 233 225 222 227 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.7 26.0 24.9 24.3 24.0 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.2 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 139 131 124 112 106 102 96 90 85 82 79 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 36 34 32 31 32 32 26 23 23 25 26 22 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 39 41 45 40 14 -3 -7 -4 14 29 80 200 MB DIV 50 23 6 0 1 -5 10 14 22 37 14 -9 -9 LAND (KM) 382 379 397 452 530 665 784 887 951 980 988 1029 1023 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.4 113.6 115.7 118.0 119.8 121.5 122.7 123.5 124.5 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -31. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -19. -27. -36. -43. -49. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -19. -28. -36. -42. -47. -51. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/22/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY