* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/23/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 14 14 18 20 22 29 39 39 43 47 56 SHEAR DIR 211 218 222 232 233 248 231 229 224 234 225 231 237 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.6 24.6 24.0 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 131 124 119 112 108 108 101 93 89 86 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 32 32 31 32 37 38 33 32 34 32 40 39 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 43 44 43 40 23 -4 -9 -13 -14 8 3 17 200 MB DIV 18 -1 -2 3 -7 4 35 4 21 14 27 7 -6 LAND (KM) 391 420 471 562 668 803 906 990 1032 1038 1043 1051 1058 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.1 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.4 112.4 113.7 115.0 117.1 119.0 120.5 121.7 122.7 123.4 124.1 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -18. -23. -29. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -11. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -43. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. -10. -14. -23. -30. -34. -39. -41. -44. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY