* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/23/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 17 20 24 22 29 31 42 41 47 50 56 SHEAR DIR 222 222 228 225 235 238 227 226 228 225 227 231 224 SST (C) 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 129 123 119 115 113 110 106 102 97 93 92 89 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 34 33 34 34 36 32 33 33 35 35 38 32 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 50 36 32 7 6 0 -3 0 11 -9 -21 200 MB DIV 8 -15 0 -13 -2 3 24 22 22 22 21 32 36 LAND (KM) 457 520 600 695 784 894 990 1061 1093 1108 1107 1107 1104 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.9 114.0 115.2 116.3 118.2 120.2 121.4 122.1 122.8 123.1 123.5 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 5 4 3 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -27. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -39. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -25. -30. -35. -38. -41. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY