* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/23/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 21 24 22 28 29 39 37 38 39 47 50 SHEAR DIR 223 232 227 235 241 236 238 213 230 219 231 225 213 SST (C) 26.9 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.1 24.3 23.5 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 126 122 118 115 114 113 104 96 90 86 82 79 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 35 33 33 35 35 34 34 39 38 44 46 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 37 36 23 -1 2 5 2 34 30 12 -39 200 MB DIV -2 3 -12 5 5 22 17 25 16 25 10 38 66 LAND (KM) 524 599 690 785 854 975 1086 1130 1106 1097 1049 1026 1011 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.0 23.9 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.6 114.8 116.0 117.2 119.2 121.1 122.4 123.2 123.9 124.0 124.3 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -12. -17. -22. -26. -32. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -31. -35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -24. -25. -29. -33. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.5 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY