* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKO EP152007 10/23/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 25 26 27 34 31 41 38 39 38 41 37 SHEAR DIR 241 230 234 237 235 238 226 223 227 230 232 242 244 SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.5 21.9 21.3 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 120 118 117 116 111 101 92 86 80 73 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 33 33 35 35 33 35 37 39 38 37 29 19 14 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 35 28 14 3 9 16 19 9 8 31 66 60 200 MB DIV -2 -14 3 8 11 21 21 23 13 11 3 7 4 LAND (KM) 646 744 853 918 993 1078 1225 1206 1095 1011 855 760 689 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.4 21.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.1 116.4 117.7 118.9 120.6 122.8 123.7 123.7 123.7 122.8 122.4 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -26. -30. -34. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -33. -37. -39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -27. -30. -34. -36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152007 KIKO 10/23/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY