* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/25/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 29 30 31 34 37 40 45 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 29 27 27 31 34 37 42 46 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 20 24 28 28 29 30 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 39 30 31 31 34 28 28 21 21 17 19 24 36 SHEAR DIR 298 298 279 294 299 291 291 280 289 272 249 210 219 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 151 153 152 155 157 155 158 159 157 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 141 141 144 144 148 149 145 146 147 143 138 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 54 55 55 52 55 56 57 66 74 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 8 8 6 8 8 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 19 30 34 32 33 45 48 50 63 79 111 108 200 MB DIV 13 11 -13 12 -3 0 9 -3 15 21 28 40 40 LAND (KM) 271 188 115 50 33 -18 -78 65 63 11 113 84 -12 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.3 21.2 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.2 65.0 66.0 66.9 69.1 71.5 73.7 75.9 77.7 79.3 80.7 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 84 87 86 79 75 9999 96 77 88 100 100 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 24. 20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/25/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/25/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY