* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/25/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 40 44 48 54 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 32 34 38 42 48 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 29 29 31 34 37 38 SHEAR (KTS) 32 32 32 29 24 28 23 21 18 18 16 28 28 SHEAR DIR 295 278 292 302 309 283 295 276 291 259 233 218 247 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 153 154 154 156 155 155 158 157 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 144 144 146 148 149 148 145 146 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 58 57 54 55 57 59 58 64 69 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 41 44 52 47 61 64 72 70 92 115 125 121 200 MB DIV 10 -9 21 8 4 -2 24 19 18 28 33 57 43 LAND (KM) 176 87 22 5 33 3 0 67 47 124 228 171 132 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 65.1 66.0 67.0 68.0 70.4 72.8 75.1 77.2 78.9 80.4 81.6 82.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 83 86 83 78 76 97 105 92 86 100 102 94 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -17. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 18. 24. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 29. 30. 28. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/25/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/25/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY