* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/26/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 37 40 43 47 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 27 28 27 33 35 33 40 44 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 27 27 24 26 26 23 29 30 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 35 35 31 23 25 27 24 28 20 24 19 26 28 SHEAR DIR 279 289 303 313 294 288 279 288 295 278 253 244 232 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 154 152 154 155 155 154 155 157 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 145 146 146 147 148 146 144 143 142 140 141 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 55 58 56 58 57 58 61 67 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 52 59 72 66 75 78 85 100 112 102 102 200 MB DIV 8 23 25 30 7 11 5 12 25 33 27 23 12 LAND (KM) 109 19 -22 63 22 -19 11 66 -2 92 238 265 233 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.6 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.8 66.7 67.8 68.9 71.4 73.6 75.7 77.5 79.0 80.3 81.2 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 85 80 9999 78 90 97 107 89 88 97 100 98 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -17. -21. -22. -23. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 24. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY