* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/26/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 50 56 60 62 62 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 39 47 50 54 56 57 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 27 28 30 32 35 38 40 35
SHEAR (KTS) 35 21 19 24 24 20 23 15 18 20 25 29 29
SHEAR DIR 306 324 301 291 290 263 271 269 252 230 240 233 253
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 154 154 155 156 156 160 157 155 156 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 145 147 147 147 146 144 147 143 139 140 139
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 57 60 61 59 57 60 60 60 63 69 68 67 63
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 72 77 80 79 80 89 89 86 78 66 59
200 MB DIV 28 40 39 20 14 10 18 18 21 46 32 19 16
LAND (KM) 48 88 66 80 36 11 84 41 59 68 55 45 -11
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3
LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.9 68.7 69.8 70.9 73.0 74.9 76.6 78.2 79.7 80.8 82.2 83.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 84 85 87 94 99 108 89 83 90 102 101 100 88
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 25. 31. 35. 37. 37. 32.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY