* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/26/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 42 48 51 55 58 60 56
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 42 48 51 55 58 60 56
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 36
SHEAR (KTS) 30 23 26 29 22 24 22 22 16 22 21 29 23
SHEAR DIR 315 301 301 304 297 268 282 269 277 251 248 242 254
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 152 152 154 155 157 157 158 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 145 146 145 143 141 142 142 144 144 145 142
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 61 60 60 62 65 62 66 66 67 70
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 81 89 87 93 95 101 102 102 81 91 78 71 73
200 MB DIV 35 38 24 3 26 37 11 15 4 8 24 25 33
LAND (KM) 144 187 155 100 131 67 85 17 55 148 175 144 55
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.7 70.5 71.5 72.4 73.9 75.4 76.6 77.9 79.1 80.4 81.9 83.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 84 84 100 114 101 102 95 80 91 104 100 96 93
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ -5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 28.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 17. 23. 26. 30. 33. 35. 31.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/26/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY