* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/27/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 46 53 58 62 63 62 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 46 53 49 58 49 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 38 36 36 37 SHEAR (KTS) 22 25 24 19 18 22 20 18 14 18 24 28 24 SHEAR DIR 303 299 301 301 282 273 262 276 252 253 249 259 247 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 153 153 154 154 154 157 159 154 148 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 145 145 144 143 143 145 145 140 133 128 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 61 61 62 60 62 66 66 70 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 8 10 9 10 12 11 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 85 78 76 79 79 73 87 78 72 75 74 60 90 200 MB DIV 52 23 21 28 46 30 28 16 13 20 16 10 64 LAND (KM) 224 224 208 128 84 64 10 86 -11 15 -16 20 18 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.9 23.2 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.3 70.1 70.9 71.7 73.2 74.6 76.0 77.3 78.6 80.0 81.0 81.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 79 78 93 112 111 101 99 77 75 100 102 73 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 33. 32. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 21. 28. 33. 37. 38. 37. 33. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY