* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/27/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 49 56 62 65 68 69 69 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 49 56 56 59 61 63 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 39 41 37 50 55 60 64 65 SHEAR (KTS) 26 19 17 19 23 20 19 12 14 10 20 21 23 SHEAR DIR 303 307 281 281 284 275 288 280 273 249 276 277 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 152 152 152 153 155 157 157 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 147 145 143 141 141 142 143 144 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 63 63 70 67 65 61 60 60 57 56 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 96 96 105 99 114 107 104 96 71 59 66 53 200 MB DIV 52 42 36 34 29 33 28 8 13 -12 4 -17 0 LAND (KM) 305 243 202 196 178 121 54 0 39 175 238 195 132 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.0 71.7 72.5 73.2 74.5 75.7 76.9 78.1 79.5 80.7 81.7 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 83 96 105 98 92 102 94 82 91 103 100 96 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 26. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 36. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY