* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/27/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 51 59 68 73 78 79 77 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 51 50 62 66 71 72 71 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 37 43 48 54 62 67 70 SHEAR (KTS) 24 17 23 21 19 22 16 14 12 10 16 20 18 SHEAR DIR 312 282 285 286 281 271 297 275 292 269 276 272 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 152 151 152 153 152 152 154 157 157 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 144 141 142 144 141 137 139 145 142 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 69 68 64 66 59 58 59 61 57 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 14 13 13 16 15 14 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 98 106 118 107 106 125 132 128 114 114 84 80 75 200 MB DIV 58 45 51 42 40 37 32 40 19 27 22 0 4 LAND (KM) 239 214 228 222 189 153 -13 19 21 122 168 142 150 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 17.0 18.1 18.6 18.6 19.1 20.3 20.7 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.9 71.8 72.6 73.2 73.7 75.0 76.5 77.5 78.1 79.0 80.5 80.9 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 8 7 4 4 7 6 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 97 103 96 91 90 96 78 92 90 101 99 100 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 20. 27. 35. 39. 43. 43. 42. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 15. 21. 29. 38. 43. 48. 49. 47. 44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/27/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY