* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162007 10/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 59 66 71 75 78 80 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 59 66 71 75 78 80 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 46 53 59 64 69 72 SHEAR (KTS) 18 19 20 16 15 12 6 18 14 14 11 15 15 SHEAR DIR 276 269 251 260 253 270 242 246 232 265 264 287 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 155 155 159 157 154 154 154 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 145 145 146 147 149 141 135 133 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 61 57 55 53 55 58 58 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 112 105 111 129 134 139 128 111 114 113 108 86 200 MB DIV 52 50 57 73 42 36 13 4 -13 13 0 6 -8 LAND (KM) 200 163 155 91 37 84 33 115 81 60 37 47 49 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.5 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.0 72.7 73.5 74.2 75.8 78.0 79.5 80.1 80.1 79.7 79.7 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 6 2 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 106 109 98 98 105 82 92 100 103 104 101 101 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 36. 41. 45. 48. 50. 49. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY