* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162007 10/28/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 64 68 70 69 66 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 64 68 56 50 47 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 46 52 46 43 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 15 12 20 12 16 17 17 21 29 25 36 SHEAR DIR 275 268 273 256 275 290 266 276 262 267 257 249 236 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 155 154 159 158 156 152 150 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 145 149 147 144 146 143 138 134 134 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 63 63 61 57 58 57 57 62 58 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 13 11 10 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 100 92 92 114 130 131 127 125 114 105 102 85 57 200 MB DIV 54 27 54 47 42 21 22 -1 -12 15 -8 -6 6 LAND (KM) 172 161 126 49 43 84 41 99 60 -24 30 191 220 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.5 73.1 74.0 74.9 76.6 78.1 79.3 80.1 80.1 79.4 78.6 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 6 4 4 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 110 99 98 104 99 82 93 100 104 9999 78 31 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 30. 33. 34. 34. 32. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 34. 38. 40. 39. 36. 29. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY