* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SIXTEEN AL162007 10/28/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 55 63 66 68 67 66 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 55 63 66 46 50 49 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 51 39 45 46 46 SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 13 18 16 11 13 14 19 23 20 28 32 SHEAR DIR 263 274 265 271 279 272 264 263 252 244 245 224 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 155 154 157 159 154 151 151 145 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 144 147 146 143 144 144 136 134 135 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 64 63 56 54 55 58 62 62 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 119 130 131 137 134 121 96 88 99 74 20 200 MB DIV 48 66 66 58 50 16 12 0 14 -13 6 8 0 LAND (KM) 173 155 104 62 67 80 33 79 11 -7 93 251 373 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.4 22.9 24.0 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.9 73.5 74.3 75.1 76.7 78.0 79.2 79.9 79.5 77.8 76.8 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 4 6 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 102 97 96 102 96 83 92 101 103 86 65 60 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 39.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 33. 36. 38. 37. 36. 29. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 39.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 SIXTEEN 10/28/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY