* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 10/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 67 75 82 86 87 86 83 79 74 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 53 61 56 41 43 44 43 40 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 53 59 62 43 47 56 63 68 72 74 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 14 12 4 15 6 14 15 17 10 17 14 SHEAR DIR 279 272 255 269 252 233 250 245 266 245 245 230 274 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 156 156 155 151 150 148 146 145 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 145 146 143 139 132 130 128 128 129 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 66 66 67 62 62 63 67 67 67 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 104 116 118 132 121 123 136 144 156 168 140 115 200 MB DIV 83 69 76 66 73 53 21 30 36 27 42 40 33 LAND (KM) 118 109 53 -20 45 -26 -25 25 58 106 178 326 538 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.4 24.4 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.5 73.2 73.9 74.6 75.8 76.8 77.1 77.2 77.2 77.1 76.1 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 8 6 3 2 3 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 113 104 102 9999 99 9999 9999 77 73 70 66 55 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 34. 38. 39. 38. 36. 32. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 17. 22. 30. 37. 41. 42. 41. 38. 34. 29. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY