* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* NOEL AL162007 10/29/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 67 74 82 87 89 88 82 72 60
V (KT) LAND 50 54 52 62 66 56 66 71 74 72 66 56 44
V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 66 69 60 69 78 84 87 82 72 57
SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 11 11 9 10 4 12 10 22 33 44 42
SHEAR DIR 283 284 329 333 317 339 294 286 267 261 232 237 241
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 156 156 155 153 149 147 143 135 126 119
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 144 145 143 141 137 132 129 126 118 109 103
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 6 4
700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 70 67 68 66 67 69 63 57 47 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 91 101 100 116 116 112 140 137 157 137 138 40 15
200 MB DIV 64 49 54 59 35 61 66 73 50 46 21 -4 -18
LAND (KM) 100 65 -2 27 78 -28 60 165 281 422 569 638 708
LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.8 26.4 27.9 29.3
LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.6 73.1 73.7 74.3 75.1 75.8 75.9 75.5 75.0 74.4 73.7 72.7
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 111 102 103 101 92 9999 72 66 58 44 31 13 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 36. 31. 23. 12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 32. 37. 39. 38. 32. 22. 10.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY