* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 10/29/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 62 66 69 66 62 54 46 37 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 50 45 57 61 64 61 57 48 40 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 44 45 40 47 50 53 55 53 48 42 34 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 14 17 18 15 18 25 36 33 50 56 51 SHEAR DIR 288 298 308 285 285 275 255 256 248 231 234 241 249 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 158 156 154 149 144 138 131 121 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 148 144 139 132 125 121 115 105 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -54.7 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 70 67 67 65 71 72 65 57 46 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 14 15 18 17 17 14 12 9 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 90 100 111 105 101 102 102 89 88 57 54 20 200 MB DIV 52 68 81 63 57 78 88 107 79 60 16 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 52 11 52 44 -4 88 237 362 479 534 703 639 619 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.8 23.2 24.5 25.7 27.2 29.0 30.4 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.8 73.3 74.0 74.7 75.5 75.6 75.6 75.4 74.7 73.3 72.1 70.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 101 101 98 84 75 69 60 51 40 24 7 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 20. 23. 21. 18. 11. 3. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 21. 24. 21. 17. 9. 1. -8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY