* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 10/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 53 55 57 60 58 50 43 33 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 47 53 55 57 60 58 50 43 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 47 49 50 47 40 31 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 23 18 15 18 22 21 23 44 60 59 58 SHEAR DIR 272 247 259 261 263 253 261 251 239 228 226 227 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 147 146 144 141 139 135 127 121 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 138 134 130 129 127 122 120 117 108 104 101 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 69 66 69 69 69 74 71 68 57 41 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 16 17 18 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 95 82 70 84 89 116 128 138 124 97 51 24 200 MB DIV 72 85 99 89 77 82 88 83 102 66 17 12 -8 LAND (KM) 60 99 160 190 234 271 279 270 358 441 507 608 613 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 74.2 74.6 75.0 75.3 76.6 77.6 77.5 76.5 75.7 75.3 74.0 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 74 62 54 54 56 58 56 50 32 19 15 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 21. 19. 12. 5. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 15. 17. 20. 18. 10. 3. -7. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY