* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* NOEL AL162007 10/30/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 66 65 65 59 50 42 31
V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 66 65 65 59 50 42 31
V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 51 53 57 59 60 59 54 47 39 31
SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 19 14 16 20 26 35 38 53 74 60 63
SHEAR DIR 257 253 256 259 254 251 267 254 249 225 224 222 223
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 148 148 143 140 138 133 122 116 110 109
ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 137 133 132 125 121 120 118 110 104 96 94
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 2
700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 62 66 68 69 63 56 45 32 23 13
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 17 21 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 101 102 91 99 121 97 145 126 157 116 142 152 133
200 MB DIV 91 95 95 90 85 60 59 80 70 39 10 5 13
LAND (KM) 45 83 145 153 161 197 161 222 378 632 591 686 804
LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.4 29.1 31.7 33.6 35.1
LONG(DEG W) 74.5 75.3 76.1 76.9 77.6 78.6 78.6 77.9 76.3 74.1 71.3 68.8 66.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 5 7 11 15 16 13 11
HEAT CONTENT 66 62 64 65 67 24 40 45 23 10 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -28.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 23. 21. 21. 15. 6. -2. -11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 21. 20. 20. 14. 5. -3. -14.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY