* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 10/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 62 64 67 67 62 55 47 33 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 62 64 67 67 62 55 47 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 56 57 60 62 62 59 50 39 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 18 18 19 27 26 37 60 75 64 58 69 SHEAR DIR 269 260 269 247 270 267 249 258 240 233 235 233 238 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.6 26.1 25.4 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 147 143 141 135 122 117 111 111 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 134 133 130 125 124 121 110 105 99 97 92 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 63 64 66 66 68 63 58 47 32 20 9 8 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 19 18 18 17 21 26 31 36 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR 112 111 124 130 120 138 152 169 157 171 115 85 48 200 MB DIV 92 92 100 77 79 71 78 121 66 -12 -15 29 23 LAND (KM) 21 60 73 99 134 193 191 337 614 606 696 729 586 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.4 24.5 25.6 27.2 29.1 31.3 33.8 36.3 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.4 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.7 78.3 76.7 74.3 71.5 68.6 65.6 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 8 13 15 17 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 67 72 69 69 68 28 44 26 11 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -22. -26. -28. -32. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 4. 9. 12. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 20. 18. 13. 6. -2. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 17. 12. 5. -3. -17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY