* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * NOEL AL162007 10/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 55 60 61 64 62 56 51 47 41 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 42 44 49 51 54 52 45 40 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 40 42 46 51 53 52 48 42 37 33 SHEAR (KTS) 18 11 15 14 18 20 23 34 51 68 53 44 39 SHEAR DIR 272 269 238 245 259 249 254 229 227 224 227 235 258 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 26.7 25.9 25.5 25.0 19.1 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 147 145 140 124 116 112 109 82 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 135 132 130 129 128 114 106 101 98 77 69 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -50.9 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 65 66 70 68 69 67 58 45 33 45 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 129 139 130 122 160 140 139 150 179 187 147 179 200 MB DIV 85 89 63 52 54 67 100 117 106 71 53 99 99 LAND (KM) -40 -24 -8 42 103 207 314 612 604 731 614 349 33 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.2 24.4 26.3 28.8 31.8 34.8 37.8 41.9 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.5 78.1 78.4 78.6 78.6 77.0 74.2 71.0 67.9 65.3 61.0 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 9 15 19 20 19 22 28 31 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 72 72 72 25 39 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 19. 17. 11. 6. 2. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 19. 17. 11. 6. 2. -4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY