* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * NOEL AL162007 10/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 35 40 45 48 46 43 42 41 37 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 34 35 40 45 48 46 43 42 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 33 33 36 39 40 37 32 28 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 13 11 13 15 25 50 61 66 59 52 45 SHEAR DIR 271 247 256 259 276 238 251 249 244 248 249 254 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.6 26.2 25.3 25.1 22.5 12.7 6.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 148 146 135 120 112 109 93 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 134 135 132 134 126 112 102 97 83 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 66 69 70 68 68 69 59 57 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 17 16 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 134 132 123 128 144 135 111 118 92 118 131 148 200 MB DIV 82 63 61 82 81 103 143 119 130 118 130 124 108 LAND (KM) -33 -52 -30 19 94 236 408 571 663 639 397 141 -80 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.8 27.5 30.7 34.0 37.3 40.4 44.2 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 78.1 78.4 78.5 78.5 78.1 76.0 72.8 68.9 65.6 63.1 60.1 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 8 12 19 22 22 20 20 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 74 71 43 21 3 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 5. 10. 13. 11. 8. 7. 6. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -1. 0. 5. 10. 13. 11. 8. 7. 6. 2. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY