* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * NOEL AL162007 10/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 48 55 61 62 61 62 59 56 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 36 39 44 50 56 57 57 57 55 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 34 36 39 42 41 36 32 29 28 31 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 14 11 13 22 45 56 60 51 36 39 49 SHEAR DIR 265 265 268 267 258 260 252 242 237 254 241 233 222 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.0 25.9 25.5 24.2 17.0 9.1 2.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 148 148 146 128 118 114 103 75 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 132 133 136 121 110 104 92 71 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 67 69 69 68 68 57 54 65 66 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 17 17 17 15 19 27 28 30 35 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 156 149 137 139 159 137 136 119 112 117 134 166 217 200 MB DIV 70 60 83 79 73 96 120 154 166 139 113 116 119 LAND (KM) -52 -32 -29 37 103 249 500 533 712 485 267 140 100 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.2 25.2 28.5 32.1 35.7 39.3 42.6 46.4 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.3 78.7 78.7 78.6 77.8 75.3 71.7 67.4 63.9 61.3 58.0 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 15 22 24 24 21 20 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 74 72 53 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -8. -11. -11. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 5. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 27. 26. 27. 24. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 27. 26. 27. 24. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY