* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * NOEL AL162007 10/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 45 50 51 49 44 40 36 33 30 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 52 50 45 41 37 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 40 42 46 49 46 40 33 27 24 30 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 12 9 19 26 37 70 74 72 66 66 68 SHEAR DIR 260 254 272 255 251 230 236 235 249 252 253 234 225 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 26.6 25.6 25.2 22.7 13.1 6.2 3.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 147 140 123 115 112 94 71 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 131 131 132 128 115 107 102 85 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 68 68 66 65 66 55 53 58 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 17 16 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 128 135 156 138 139 95 92 57 58 92 117 129 200 MB DIV 53 76 81 71 63 103 86 113 96 134 121 114 103 LAND (KM) -27 10 60 141 222 303 560 514 651 407 155 -111 227 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.5 24.2 26.4 29.2 32.8 36.5 40.3 44.0 48.6 53.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.4 78.6 78.4 78.1 77.1 74.9 71.3 66.9 63.1 60.2 56.7 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 10 14 20 25 25 23 23 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 9999 73 73 68 48 38 12 0 0 0 0 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -9. -14. -15. -16. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 14. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 14. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY