* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* NOEL AL162007 10/31/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 57 55 51 47 42 38 36 31
V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 57 55 51 47 42 38 35 30
V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 49 53 55 51 43 36 30 31 33
SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 13 19 14 28 41 65 65 70 80 79 76
SHEAR DIR 246 264 249 248 233 234 229 239 242 241 236 231 237
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.9 26.5 25.4 24.6 18.4 9.3 2.3 5.7
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 146 145 137 122 113 107 80 70 68 68
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 128 130 125 113 105 99 75 68 N/A 67
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -53.3 -54.8 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 64 65 68 68 65 61 57 48 55 53 60 64 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 15 14 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 119 130 146 131 135 147 133 105 100 93 103 100 123
200 MB DIV 80 80 70 68 82 91 91 65 128 123 111 146 115
LAND (KM) 43 90 136 208 227 336 626 545 573 264 67 27 512
LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.2 24.8 26.9 29.5 33.1 37.3 41.9 46.5 51.6 56.5
LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.5 78.6 78.4 78.2 76.7 74.0 70.7 66.9 63.1 59.4 55.1 50.3
STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 15 20 25 27 27 28 29 28
HEAT CONTENT 72 71 69 35 38 30 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -18.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 17. 13. 9. 4. 0. -2. -6.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 15. 11. 7. 2. -2. -4. -9.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY