* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 10/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 59 63 67 65 64 65 60 57 44 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 59 63 67 65 64 65 60 44 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 56 59 56 49 43 38 34 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 27 18 18 17 24 45 52 54 55 54 59 79 67 SHEAR DIR 276 274 251 244 268 254 251 242 233 226 221 211 201 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.4 26.2 25.4 25.4 20.1 8.4 2.3 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 145 132 119 112 113 85 70 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 128 128 131 123 110 102 102 80 69 N/A 67 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.1 -48.1 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 66 66 61 57 51 53 50 45 43 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 20 28 28 31 37 38 39 32 850 MB ENV VOR 138 150 145 141 163 135 153 156 179 193 209 243 197 200 MB DIV 77 80 91 103 109 104 97 109 110 135 135 94 117 LAND (KM) 34 106 161 222 240 443 578 666 670 360 43 130 574 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.3 23.9 24.6 25.2 27.8 30.9 33.9 37.0 41.5 47.3 52.2 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.8 78.8 78.4 77.9 75.7 72.4 68.9 65.5 62.0 58.3 53.8 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 12 19 21 21 23 29 30 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 76 74 62 23 52 24 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -17. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 7. 9. 14. 14. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 24. 22. 20. 21. 16. 14. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 20. 19. 20. 15. 12. -1. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 10/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY