* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 62 65 66 70 73 70 63 55 48 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 62 65 66 70 73 70 48 40 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 59 61 59 53 47 41 35 35 38 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 16 15 18 40 42 46 66 69 81 72 42 SHEAR DIR 278 274 249 247 240 248 230 243 236 226 223 223 234 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 26.4 25.4 24.9 20.5 9.8 2.2 5.7 2.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 143 140 122 113 109 86 71 69 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 131 130 130 114 104 98 80 70 N/A 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.0 -48.3 -49.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 63 60 54 52 41 40 36 46 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 19 22 30 37 38 35 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 165 152 142 147 151 162 158 165 193 206 200 166 132 200 MB DIV 80 104 107 122 92 102 68 139 142 130 91 89 31 LAND (KM) 72 154 235 294 353 624 593 597 311 23 112 642 963 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.4 26.4 29.7 33.3 37.1 41.0 46.0 52.0 57.5 62.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 78.3 78.0 77.3 76.6 73.7 70.0 66.8 63.8 59.6 54.0 49.1 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 12 16 22 24 23 26 32 33 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 72 65 49 53 37 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -8. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 13. 15. 11. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 22. 25. 22. 14. 7. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 20. 23. 20. 13. 5. -2. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY