* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/01/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 60 62 62 62 60 57 53 48 39 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 60 62 62 62 60 48 42 37 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 56 58 58 55 50 45 36 36 35 36 SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 14 24 33 33 42 45 48 59 73 82 88 SHEAR DIR 277 264 240 230 239 243 240 235 225 197 209 219 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.1 25.6 21.8 13.2 7.5 4.9 8.0 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 139 131 120 115 91 72 68 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 131 129 123 112 106 84 69 67 N/A 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -50.4 -48.8 -48.3 -52.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 62 58 57 58 57 53 39 34 39 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 158 138 141 144 149 181 149 179 203 237 206 74 3 200 MB DIV 95 95 121 110 102 126 159 182 131 123 94 101 98 LAND (KM) 138 242 237 330 445 550 631 401 123 -50 324 699 1087 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.6 27.9 31.4 35.7 39.9 44.1 48.0 51.8 54.2 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 78.2 77.9 76.8 75.7 72.2 68.8 65.1 60.9 56.1 50.8 45.4 39.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 16 20 25 25 26 26 25 23 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 68 34 53 36 23 2 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 14. 15. 12. 9. 5. 0. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. -2. -11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY