* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 59 63 69 75 71 66 64 50 37 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 59 63 69 75 71 51 49 34 22 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 54 51 46 40 35 33 35 38 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 18 25 30 36 47 58 65 77 76 80 77 SHEAR DIR 263 248 243 249 245 226 236 226 229 219 207 209 213 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.0 25.8 25.2 20.0 11.0 2.9 6.5 6.5 7.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 143 137 128 117 112 84 71 68 67 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 131 127 119 109 103 78 69 N/A 66 63 62 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -49.6 -48.5 -49.2 -51.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 64 61 58 60 56 50 41 38 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 18 22 25 32 41 41 37 38 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 147 148 147 135 146 158 145 166 192 218 202 138 31 200 MB DIV 101 121 112 104 116 116 177 189 88 136 118 94 36 LAND (KM) 178 291 341 445 579 554 604 302 34 30 496 871 1089 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.6 27.0 28.3 32.2 36.6 40.9 45.4 50.1 54.8 57.0 57.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 77.5 76.8 75.6 74.4 71.3 67.9 64.4 60.4 55.2 48.8 43.9 40.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 14 17 20 25 26 26 28 30 24 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 47 38 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 15. 12. 12. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 10. 15. 20. 27. 23. 18. 16. 2. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 21. 16. 14. 0. -13. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY