* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* NOEL AL162007 11/01/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 64 66 69 74 72 68 71 63 52 36
V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 64 66 69 74 72 62 54 46 36 19
V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 59 59 56 52 45 39 39 39 43 50
SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 24 30 35 42 45 50 51 54 65 69 58
SHEAR DIR 255 242 246 246 229 234 225 224 217 195 203 233 267
SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 26.8 26.3 25.4 23.0 14.4 6.7 3.8 4.1 6.4 2.1
POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 125 121 113 97 74 70 69 70 72 71
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 126 125 116 112 104 90 72 69 N/A N/A 71 N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -50.4 -49.1 -48.4 -50.5 -53.8 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 63 63 63 56 60 54 48 47 59 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 23 27 28 33 40 41 39 41 32 22 6
850 MB ENV VOR 149 147 152 162 176 147 178 205 226 226 222 108 163
200 MB DIV 123 118 119 134 137 136 187 120 175 128 135 24 1
LAND (KM) 294 341 396 561 592 516 465 134 10 226 889 1326 1342
LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.1 27.1 28.7 30.2 34.2 38.3 43.4 48.9 54.3 59.0 64.4 69.6
LONG(DEG W) 77.4 76.8 76.1 74.7 73.3 70.5 67.2 63.0 58.6 53.0 46.0 33.3 15.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 16 20 21 24 27 31 32 31 35 42 41
HEAT CONTENT 52 39 32 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -1. 2. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 13. 14. 13. 15. 7. -1. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 18. 15. 18. 10. -1. -18.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 19. 17. 13. 16. 8. -3. -19.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/01/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY