* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* NOEL AL162007 11/02/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 71 72 75 77 74 67 68 61 42 31
V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 71 72 75 77 57 36 40 33 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 69 67 61 51 40 31 34 37 43 50
SHEAR (KTS) 31 30 30 37 39 50 55 49 56 56 52 59 65
SHEAR DIR 258 249 229 215 220 224 213 213 202 197 207 214 215
SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.9 24.9 14.4 9.4 1.4 5.4 2.7 2.4 6.2
POT. INT. (KT) 139 130 123 119 117 109 74 71 68 67 64 63 65
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 118 112 109 107 100 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 64
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -50.1 -49.0 -48.9 -51.7 -54.5 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 57 58 60 59 64 61 59 54 54 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 26 27 29 36 43 45 38 38 29 8 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 138 139 163 165 155 151 172 184 224 217 172 69 58
200 MB DIV 117 115 137 154 148 144 193 92 140 122 73 -2 30
LAND (KM) 359 460 590 499 425 482 195 124 -51 470 746 847 1218
LAT (DEG N) 26.6 28.0 29.3 31.1 32.8 36.9 41.9 47.6 53.7 58.5 61.7 63.4 61.2
LONG(DEG W) 76.5 75.6 74.6 73.6 72.5 69.9 66.5 62.4 58.1 54.1 50.3 45.3 40.0
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 20 21 25 30 33 30 22 16 12 17
HEAT CONTENT 35 21 11 3 0 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -9. -4. 1. 3. 1.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. 1. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 15. 11. 11. 3. -13. -17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 18. 16. 15.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 13. 10. 4. 5. -2. -20. -32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 6. 7. 10. 12. 9. 2. 3. -4. -23. -34.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY