* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/02/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 74 75 76 69 64 64 64 52 40 30 V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 74 75 76 58 49 38 38 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 74 72 69 60 43 38 34 35 39 48 55 SHEAR (KTS) 34 29 36 41 42 41 49 68 61 45 37 42 42 SHEAR DIR 251 234 224 228 229 213 216 210 187 200 218 223 215 SST (C) 27.4 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.6 19.1 11.6 7.1 2.7 4.8 1.9 2.0 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 122 120 117 115 82 71 69 68 67 65 62 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 111 111 109 106 77 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 66 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -48.7 -47.7 -48.4 -49.4 -52.8 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 58 56 54 54 52 54 55 51 58 59 60 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 29 29 31 35 43 40 39 39 36 20 6 2 850 MB ENV VOR 143 155 185 168 155 184 218 254 256 221 191 141 46 200 MB DIV 124 155 187 169 157 179 129 126 130 121 4 -30 8 LAND (KM) 441 569 516 429 444 312 -27 36 156 642 695 841 1223 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 29.2 30.7 32.8 34.8 39.5 44.7 49.9 55.2 59.9 63.9 65.7 62.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.7 74.8 73.9 72.5 71.1 68.1 65.0 61.0 56.2 51.9 48.2 43.0 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 21 24 25 27 29 30 28 24 18 11 21 HEAT CONTENT 25 12 4 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -19. -21. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -12. -9. -3. 2. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -1. 2. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. -6. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 17. 15. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 1. -5. -3. -4. -15. -27. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. -1. -6. -6. -6. -17. -30. -40. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY