* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/02/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 68 69 68 60 54 54 42 31 35 26 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 68 69 68 52 38 38 27 16 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 67 65 62 53 37 33 33 33 37 45 52 SHEAR (KTS) 27 30 36 38 46 45 62 69 56 42 41 44 46 SHEAR DIR 234 221 228 220 220 208 221 206 190 205 221 237 249 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.5 24.8 15.0 10.4 3.4 5.4 2.4 1.6 1.8 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 116 114 109 74 71 69 68 65 63 63 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 107 105 99 71 69 N/A 67 N/A N/A N/A 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -50.4 -48.5 -47.4 -47.2 -50.3 -51.9 -52.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 52 53 45 49 46 55 53 47 37 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 29 33 39 44 41 37 38 19 3 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 157 181 178 158 176 199 237 262 225 154 108 92 0 200 MB DIV 149 184 151 125 122 113 91 111 97 42 -25 -25 -49 LAND (KM) 591 566 496 478 490 229 35 -119 450 687 650 836 1276 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.6 32.4 34.7 37.0 41.6 46.8 52.4 57.9 62.2 65.0 66.2 62.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 73.2 71.9 70.8 69.6 66.6 62.3 58.0 54.2 51.0 47.9 42.8 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 23 25 25 28 31 31 26 19 13 13 23 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -9. -4. 2. 7. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -2. 0. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 8. 5. 6. -9. -21. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -9. -15. -15. -26. -37. -32. -41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -10. -16. -16. -28. -39. -35. -44. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY