* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NOEL AL162007 11/02/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 67 66 60 53 53 51 43 42 38 27 V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 67 66 53 42 39 36 28 28 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 67 64 59 43 39 34 32 35 43 52 59 SHEAR (KTS) 27 37 41 47 41 48 58 66 47 47 42 47 66 SHEAR DIR 230 227 231 225 218 215 205 196 201 222 239 249 278 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.8 19.3 11.8 6.8 2.9 4.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 5.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 108 82 72 70 67 67 66 65 64 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 105 99 77 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -48.6 -48.2 -47.6 -49.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 57 54 55 52 56 53 51 57 55 52 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 32 40 41 41 38 38 30 14 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 180 167 158 167 185 214 221 256 173 123 138 74 -84 200 MB DIV 198 166 111 100 159 116 108 103 87 -7 -57 -82 -56 LAND (KM) 582 472 450 463 288 -41 -31 182 605 624 721 994 1327 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 32.5 34.6 37.0 39.3 44.2 50.5 55.6 60.0 64.4 69.0 70.5 65.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 72.2 71.1 70.1 69.1 65.3 60.7 56.4 52.7 49.2 45.5 39.4 32.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 24 25 26 32 32 26 24 24 18 15 31 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 17 CX,CY: 11/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -6. -1. 5. 10. 13. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -2. 2. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 0. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 17. 17. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -8. -15. -15. -18. -26. -26. -31. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -3. -4. -10. -17. -17. -19. -27. -28. -32. -43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162007 NOEL 11/02/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY