* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 11/03/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 31 34 36 34 32 27 25 22
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 23 28 31 34 31 29 25 22 19
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 20 24 26 25 23 21 19 17 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 17 17 15 21 17 22 19 22 25 30 29
SHEAR DIR 81 93 106 131 121 138 137 133 143 168 195 203 211
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.5 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 160 163 161 143 135 125 118 123 129 131 128
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 159 165 166 147 139 127 119 125 131 129 125
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 5 7 9
700-500 MB RH 72 69 71 71 71 70 70 73 71 69 71 66 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 7
850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 58 50 45 48 25 -1 -4 -19 -27 -20 0
200 MB DIV 64 65 50 46 52 72 42 31 9 -9 -2 21 -5
LAND (KM) 337 268 208 92 -21 21 266 419 580 585 641 694 756
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.5 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.2
LONG(DEG W) 80.1 80.8 81.5 82.7 83.8 86.5 89.6 92.7 95.7 98.9 102.0 104.6 106.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 12 13 15 15 15 15 16 14 11 9
HEAT CONTENT 102 75 59 61 9999 9 1 0 0 2 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 24. 30. 33. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 17. 15. 13. 9. 6. 5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 16. 14. 12. 7. 5. 2.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 11/03/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 11/03/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY