* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 11/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 40 42 43 39 32 27 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 29 28 30 32 33 29 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 27 27 27 30 29 27 23 20 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 11 15 16 19 22 23 22 33 32 26 31 SHEAR DIR 98 111 124 97 97 121 106 116 135 168 198 207 207 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.7 27.6 28.3 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 162 163 156 147 141 128 122 133 142 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 157 161 164 157 149 142 127 122 134 141 137 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.6 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 4 4 5 6 8 700-500 MB RH 68 71 66 67 66 65 67 67 62 63 63 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 42 53 58 53 28 15 -15 -37 -30 -35 -39 200 MB DIV 51 46 40 64 98 64 42 12 -1 -13 16 23 -20 LAND (KM) 258 165 85 -27 -151 9 139 252 394 381 418 475 507 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.6 13.3 13.7 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.7 82.6 83.8 84.9 87.5 90.2 92.9 95.6 98.5 101.3 103.4 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 92 73 43 9999 9999 9 7 0 2 8 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -16. -21. -24. -26. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 15. 9. 4. 1. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 14. 7. 2. -1. -4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 11/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 11/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY