* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 11/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 41 41 38 32 29 24 21 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 27 30 32 31 28 23 19 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 26 26 26 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 18 17 26 16 20 20 26 29 31 31 31 SHEAR DIR 114 128 99 108 119 123 120 133 163 195 198 199 209 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.6 26.8 27.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 163 156 151 142 133 124 136 147 143 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 163 157 152 143 133 123 138 148 139 130 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 5 3 6 6 9 700-500 MB RH 68 63 66 63 60 62 63 58 57 64 58 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 44 55 51 14 5 -14 -36 -46 -53 -54 -48 200 MB DIV 51 41 61 126 81 25 31 -5 -19 -1 35 5 -2 LAND (KM) 140 31 -53 -189 -137 13 137 326 288 316 332 362 374 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 83.0 84.0 85.3 86.5 89.2 92.1 95.0 98.2 101.3 103.9 105.7 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 14 11 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 23 9999 9999 9999 3 4 0 9 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -17. -21. -24. -27. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 9. 6. 2. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 13. 7. 4. -1. -4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 11/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 11/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY