* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 11/04/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 41 42 40 37 34 32 28
V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 34 36 37 36 33 29 27 23
V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 26 26 30 30 30 29 27 24 22 19
SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 16 17 17 16 17 17 26 27 30 30 34
SHEAR DIR 108 122 132 147 156 142 150 158 184 198 203 192 193
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.3 26.8 27.8 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 158 151 148 141 129 123 135 145 142 137 135
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 162 158 152 149 141 128 122 136 143 138 131 128
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 8 9
700-500 MB RH 64 66 62 64 59 64 62 57 56 55 55 52 49
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 32 44 56 57 47 9 -10 -21 -45 -35 -29 -29 -11
200 MB DIV 88 68 100 86 62 27 -11 -9 2 19 45 38 29
LAND (KM) 55 -32 -151 -148 -29 94 203 344 323 364 426 463 532
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.5
LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.8 84.9 86.2 87.4 90.1 92.7 95.4 98.3 101.0 103.2 105.0 106.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 12 10 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 30 9999 9999 9999 9999 7 0 1 8 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -24.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 16. 14. 11. 9. 6.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 15. 12. 9. 7. 3.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 11/04/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 11/04/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY