* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 11/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 41 39 40 44 49 52 53 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 41 39 40 44 49 52 53 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 40 40 41 44 49 55 58 59 SHEAR (KTS) 35 40 42 48 47 45 42 36 26 18 19 18 24 SHEAR DIR 333 323 318 308 311 289 274 269 281 288 291 318 316 SST (C) 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.2 21.1 20.5 20.2 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 97 98 100 103 105 105 100 94 88 81 78 76 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 87 90 92 94 90 84 77 72 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -54.0 -54.6 -55.2 -56.6 -57.7 -58.5 -59.0 -58.5 -58.6 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 42 38 36 35 38 46 51 55 60 57 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 17 16 13 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 201 202 175 174 186 157 132 104 103 115 120 114 101 200 MB DIV -10 -18 -22 -27 -22 28 8 14 15 5 -7 -23 -23 LAND (KM) 2082 2126 2173 2191 2095 1791 1598 1484 1425 1329 1327 1356 1408 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 32.2 31.4 30.7 30.0 30.3 32.0 34.1 35.9 37.4 38.5 39.0 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.0 37.4 36.7 35.9 32.5 29.4 26.8 24.9 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 10 11 15 16 13 10 7 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 30. 35. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 6. 9. 15. 19. 19. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 11/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 11/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY