* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 11/06/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 43 44 45 49 50 50 47 41 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 43 44 45 49 50 50 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 37 38 41 46 51 56 58 58 SHEAR (KTS) 41 48 49 46 46 40 32 23 12 18 28 33 43 SHEAR DIR 321 318 314 300 291 274 261 252 266 330 328 307 335 SST (C) 24.5 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.4 23.4 22.7 22.0 21.6 21.4 21.6 22.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 100 102 104 104 102 94 89 84 82 80 82 87 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 89 91 94 90 83 78 73 71 69 71 76 81 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -55.2 -55.5 -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -56.7 -56.7 -57.6 -58.2 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 40 46 52 59 60 60 54 47 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 17 16 15 13 12 12 13 12 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 191 188 187 185 163 141 115 137 125 107 83 62 64 200 MB DIV -20 -28 5 34 36 6 27 7 -5 -20 -18 -8 -23 LAND (KM) 2212 2153 2049 1921 1813 1755 1777 1830 1864 1910 1945 1950 1787 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.7 30.2 30.8 31.4 33.4 35.2 36.5 37.2 37.5 37.1 35.9 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 36.3 35.3 33.8 32.2 30.5 29.7 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.3 31.4 30.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 15 13 11 8 5 3 2 4 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 26. 31. 34. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 14. 16. 16. 14. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 14. 15. 15. 12. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 11/06/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 11/06/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY